Record El Niño threatens to unleash floods across East Africa and Asia

A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather pattern is threatening to bring severe flooding, disease and drought to some of the world’s most vulnerable communities across East Africa and Asia, a humanitarian organisation has warned.

On Monday, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan were among the countries most at risk, some of which have already been struggling with ongoing humanitarian emergencies.

“We’re watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs,” Bob Kitchen, a senior official for emergencies at the IRC, said.

The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 9 that El Niño is strengthening rapidly, with an 81 percent chance of becoming one of the most powerful events since 1950, likely peaking between October and December.

The UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said in early July that El Niño conditions had already developed and were forecast to strengthen rapidly between July and September.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain said on his YouTube channel that ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already at record levels for this point in the year, calling it “an enormous story of huge consequence for the world”.

Communities in El Niño’s path are already exhausted by drought, conflict and shrinking aid budgets, leaving little capacity to absorb another shock.

El Niño is a natural shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures that recurs every two to seven years, as the trade winds that normally push warm water westward weaken and the heat spreads back across the ocean.



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